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Cake day: August 24th, 2023

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  • Preventing engaging something in bad conditions is a lot easier than what do you do if the conditions suddenly happen.

    If it’s suddenly foggy it needs to be able to handle the situation well.

    Cameras/Lidar don’t work well in fog. Radar does, but it isn’t a primary sensor and can’t be driven on safely alone in any circumstance.

    So now you need to slow down (which humans will do) but also since the sensors are failing or insufficient, safely get out of the way of what might be other incoming vehicles behind you, or slow/stopped vehicles ahead of you.

    You could restrict hours the system can be engaged which will reduce the likely hood of certain events (e.g morning fog, or sunrise/sunset head on sun) but there’s still unpredictability.










  • I tried to explain to someone months ago that SpaceX testing things to failure was part of their success, and gave an example like purposely leaving heat shield tiles off starship to see what happened, or launching a version of starship that didn’t have all the improvements that the next starship had, and they then came back saying that is exactly why they (and other people) hate SpaceX. They don’t know everything up front and they should!



  • The Pentagon is directly working with SpaceX on this. Awhile ago they said they had a handle on it but that it was going to be an ongoing problem as Russian evades their measures.

    This was in May, and they’ve obviously figured another way around.

    “At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems,” Plumb said. "It will continue to be a problem, I think we’ve wrapped our heads around it and found good solutions with both Starlink and Ukraine.”


  • Reusing f9, landing F9 on barge, and Stainless steel were his initiatives. The SS one was a particularly hard win for him with a lot of internal push back.

    Catching Starship on the chopsticks might have been an idea he heard outside of SpaceX, but that he then championed, again to a lot of internal push back, I’m not 100% about it being an external to spacex idea though.

    Edit clarity and below

    Those are just examples though. And I’m sure there are times as you suggest that people suggest a difficult idea that he then champions as well.

    That he can champion these radical things, his idea or not, is still the key point of his leadership that will be lost.

    For example, someone must have suggested they use a full-flow staged combustion fuel cycle for raptor. He had to sign off on that. No one had ever designed and flown a engine like this before. The russians came closest making one, but never flew it. The predecessor to this engine in the 60s or whenever, NASA didn’t even think it was physically possible to make until the Russians made it.



  • People really under estimate how important he is to SpaceX.

    Reusing f9 1st stage - His initiative

    Landing f9 on a barge - His initiative.

    Making Starship Stainless Steel - His initiative

    Catching Starship booster on chopsticks - His initiative.

    The list goes on and on.

    Without someone like him pushing for these radical things that everyone else thinks is impossible or a bad idea we wouldn’t recognize what SpaceX would be.

    Instead we have things like starliner which is a disaster, and blue origin which started before SpaceX and has never reached orbit.

    SpaceX would slowly transform back into ‘old space’ if he was forced out as there are very few people willing to take the risks he takes.

    Edit: and it’s even very possible that the wrong CEO takes SpaceX public too soon which would make all the risk taking and fail fast development cycle they use impossible. Think of the stock crashing when a test flight fails and the pressure from investors around that.