Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims Vladimir Putin "will die soon" amid growing rumors about the Russian leader’s failing health. Meanwhile, France pledges $2 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
If Putin dies, a successor might (secretly) align with Ukraine. Something like “If you attack XX, I will remove my troops from ZZ, if you don’t attack me. I will be focusing on a bread & butter campaign if I run Russia. Take care of my rivals in the meantime, mm’kay?”
Mind, I would prefer Russia outright being conquered and Marshall Planned into something completely different, but I would accept the other scenario if the outcome could be decent. In this case, Ukraine gets back Crimea and all other territories, plus security guarantees.
It’s far more likely that China will take the East back while new Russia is in turmoil. Japan may decide it’s time to retrieve the Kuriles and Sakhalin, too. And Siberia is ripe for independence, too. A broken up Russia would be better for the world imho.
Obligatory: Fuck Russia. With a cactus. No lube…
I don’t think our positions are mutually exclusive. I am thinking Russia in the west getting the Marshall Plan reform treatment would be done, and what you described also happening. That would make it easier for the EU to handle the Russian territory closer to home.
Plus, China tearing off a haunch of Russia might be good for peace in the long run. It would allow Xi Ping to have a victorious legacy, without having to attack Taiwan. The Chinese tiger might sleep while digesting the territory it reclaimed from Russia.
I’m good with anything that neuters Russia. They are a curse on the world, as they are now.
In your scenario, China gains back it’s old possessions whilst learning that invading ones neighbours only results in bad things, so that’s an extra bonus for the world imo.
Considering how Western Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan turned out after their Marshall Plans, I think there is a lot of evidence that reforming and rebuilding a country helps with making them into democratic major powers. I would guess the EU would do it, and Ukraine would want their neighbor to stop being a jackass.
Poland certainly wouldn’t want Ukraine to annex Russia, that just means a new rival on their doorstep. Ditto for Turkey, since they are a naval bottleneck, and wouldn’t want a Uber Ukraine to get ideas. So on and so forth. A lot of nations would rather a smaller and reformed Russia, than a bigger and hungry Ukraine. Better to foster small but capable democracies that want to be part of the EU bloc.
Honestly, there’s a solid argument that one of the reasons for post-soviet states being what they are today is that the dissolution of the USSR wasn’t followed by a Marshall Plan of some kind. OTOH, it’s questionable if it was even feasible to pull one off considering the size of the USSR.
I would assume that Ukraine would also get a Marshall Plan. The place is rich with resources and food, but lacks the infrastructure to take advantage. That makes Ukraine suitable for investment, since the EU would get a healthy trading partner in the long run. As with Russia, letting Ukraine rot after the conflict could lead to trouble down the line, so keeping democratic Ukraine in good health is key to keeping the peace.
Be it pragmatic or moral, there is a great deal of value in well executed Marshall Plans for everyone involved.
I wasn’t advocating for his survival. His elimination is a prerequisite to a genuine Marshall Plan. The question is what happens after his death, and that means supporting Russian leaders who prefer democracy over the old ways.
Dunno, honestly. Still, I expect that if the EU implemented a Russian Marshall Plan, they likely have intelligence profiles on who is least bad to head up a budding democracy. If that someone steps out of line, they are removed in some fashion and a different person is tried until the project succeeds. In this hypothetical scenario, the EU can shut the Marshall purse strings until an appropriate puppet is willing to be tied to them. Or leave through a convenient window in search of a replacement.
If you’re thinking of the oligarchs, it was more like they pocketed billions and billions of dollars of existing Soviet stuff. The input required was just politics and personal risk.
No I thought of the megacorps like Exxon and Total who actually invested billions to get the resources out if the ground. And lots of other companies who invested in different stuff. I doubt that will happen again, at least in the near future.
Europe, because being next to a giant (nuclear?) power vacuum is bad. I guess I have to think it would be less than enthusiastic, though, and there’d be a temptation to do the Morganthau plan even though it’s a crime against humanity.
That said, there will be no conquering, because of that “nuclear” thing.
Considering the shit state of the country to start, a punitive action would probably be overkill anyway. I just hate seeing a single euro go to rebuild anything in Russia after the last few years of them destroying Ukraine.
Eh, try not to think of it as a collective sin. They have a shit government now and no history of having a government that’s not an autocratic nightmare of some kind. People go along with it, but they would anywhere. Just look at the US now.
If Putin dies, a successor might (secretly) align with Ukraine. Something like “If you attack XX, I will remove my troops from ZZ, if you don’t attack me. I will be focusing on a bread & butter campaign if I run Russia. Take care of my rivals in the meantime, mm’kay?”
Mind, I would prefer Russia outright being conquered and Marshall Planned into something completely different, but I would accept the other scenario if the outcome could be decent. In this case, Ukraine gets back Crimea and all other territories, plus security guarantees.
It’s far more likely that China will take the East back while new Russia is in turmoil. Japan may decide it’s time to retrieve the Kuriles and Sakhalin, too. And Siberia is ripe for independence, too. A broken up Russia would be better for the world imho. Obligatory: Fuck Russia. With a cactus. No lube…
I don’t think our positions are mutually exclusive. I am thinking Russia in the west getting the Marshall Plan reform treatment would be done, and what you described also happening. That would make it easier for the EU to handle the Russian territory closer to home.
Plus, China tearing off a haunch of Russia might be good for peace in the long run. It would allow Xi Ping to have a victorious legacy, without having to attack Taiwan. The Chinese tiger might sleep while digesting the territory it reclaimed from Russia.
I’m good with anything that neuters Russia. They are a curse on the world, as they are now. In your scenario, China gains back it’s old possessions whilst learning that invading ones neighbours only results in bad things, so that’s an extra bonus for the world imo.
who would invest in russia? honestly? belarus? it’s other parasites?
Considering how Western Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan turned out after their Marshall Plans, I think there is a lot of evidence that reforming and rebuilding a country helps with making them into democratic major powers. I would guess the EU would do it, and Ukraine would want their neighbor to stop being a jackass.
Poland certainly wouldn’t want Ukraine to annex Russia, that just means a new rival on their doorstep. Ditto for Turkey, since they are a naval bottleneck, and wouldn’t want a Uber Ukraine to get ideas. So on and so forth. A lot of nations would rather a smaller and reformed Russia, than a bigger and hungry Ukraine. Better to foster small but capable democracies that want to be part of the EU bloc.
Honestly, there’s a solid argument that one of the reasons for post-soviet states being what they are today is that the dissolution of the USSR wasn’t followed by a Marshall Plan of some kind. OTOH, it’s questionable if it was even feasible to pull one off considering the size of the USSR.
Valid points, but asking Ukraine to help rebuild that shitstain of a country is beyond the pall for me.
I would assume that Ukraine would also get a Marshall Plan. The place is rich with resources and food, but lacks the infrastructure to take advantage. That makes Ukraine suitable for investment, since the EU would get a healthy trading partner in the long run. As with Russia, letting Ukraine rot after the conflict could lead to trouble down the line, so keeping democratic Ukraine in good health is key to keeping the peace.
Be it pragmatic or moral, there is a great deal of value in well executed Marshall Plans for everyone involved.
they gotta get rid of putin first.
I dunno, you make valid points, but I cannot foresee a peace with that ghoul
I wasn’t advocating for his survival. His elimination is a prerequisite to a genuine Marshall Plan. The question is what happens after his death, and that means supporting Russian leaders who prefer democracy over the old ways.
genuine query: who’s left now that navalny was murdered?
Dunno, honestly. Still, I expect that if the EU implemented a Russian Marshall Plan, they likely have intelligence profiles on who is least bad to head up a budding democracy. If that someone steps out of line, they are removed in some fashion and a different person is tried until the project succeeds. In this hypothetical scenario, the EU can shut the Marshall purse strings until an appropriate puppet is willing to be tied to them. Or leave through a convenient window in search of a replacement.
The EU would. Agains denuclearisation for example and strong pro democratic levers.
No one would just pour money into russia like in the nineties though ofc.
I see the validity of that, but after seeing the russian populace’s disregard for the horrors in ukraine I kinda feel reluctant.
We have to do a full german-1945 on them ofc.
Did that happen? If so, it didn’t work very well, they’re literally called the “hungry nineties” locally.
Big companies who invested billions and billions started in the nineties.
If you’re thinking of the oligarchs, it was more like they pocketed billions and billions of dollars of existing Soviet stuff. The input required was just politics and personal risk.
No I thought of the megacorps like Exxon and Total who actually invested billions to get the resources out if the ground. And lots of other companies who invested in different stuff. I doubt that will happen again, at least in the near future.
pfft the oligarchs loved it.
Europe, because being next to a giant (nuclear?) power vacuum is bad. I guess I have to think it would be less than enthusiastic, though, and there’d be a temptation to do the Morganthau plan even though it’s a crime against humanity.
That said, there will be no conquering, because of that “nuclear” thing.
Considering the shit state of the country to start, a punitive action would probably be overkill anyway. I just hate seeing a single euro go to rebuild anything in Russia after the last few years of them destroying Ukraine.
Eh, try not to think of it as a collective sin. They have a shit government now and no history of having a government that’s not an autocratic nightmare of some kind. People go along with it, but they would anywhere. Just look at the US now.
really, I do try, but holy hell is it hard with the ghouls we see in their populace absolutely celebrating the shitshow.
and, any first step to aiding russia has to include the end of putin.