cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17947966
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, had suggested that China’s real economic growth {measured by the Gross Domestic Product, GDP] in recent years may have been closer to 2% annually, not 5% as claimed by authorities. Now, he has been banned from public speaking indefinitely.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered an investigation into a prominent economist who questioned the credibility of Beijing’s official GDP figures and criticised the government’s economic policies.
Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, has been banned from public speaking for an indefinite period, Washington Post reported citing individuals familiar with the matter.
[…]
The move came after Gao’s remarks at a Washington forum last month, where he suggested that China’s real economic growth in recent years may have been closer to 2 per cent annually, well below the 5 per cent claimed by authorities. Gao also expressed scepticism about the government’s ability to effectively implement measures to stimulate growth.
“We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure,” Gao had said during the December 12 event co-hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Chinese think tank. He speculated that the actual growth rate might be significantly lower than official data suggested.
Xi is said to have been angered by Gao’s remarks, ordering that he be disciplined. Although Gao has retained his job, his public engagements have been curtailed. A planned lecture at China’s Nankai University was abruptly cancelled in January, reportedly due to “scheduling conflicts.”
[…]
This crackdown on Gao comes as Beijing seeks to manage growing concerns over its economic trajectory. China’s economy faces mounting challenges, including a real estate crisis that has eroded household wealth by an estimated $18 trillion, rising debt nearing 300 per cent of GDP, and industrial overcapacity. Analysts have raised concerns about the risk of a deflationary spiral.
[…]
Beijing has intensified efforts to suppress negative commentary about the economy, with senior officials urging tighter control over economic messaging. In a recent meeting, Cai Qi, Xi’s chief of staff, called for greater “expectation management” to counteract pessimism.
[…]
More recently, discrepancies between official data and other economic indicators, such as wage growth and exports, have fuelled scepticism among economists.
[…]
Such a slowdown would challenge Xi’s goal of doubling the nation’s economic output by 2035.
Source appears to be “dude just trust me”
is there any evidence of this?
Lol yea bro China is famous for openly sharing details about everything. That’s why there are so many great sources.
The burden of being factual lies with the government being accused of lying. Xi can publish some uncooked numbers if he has them (he doesn’t)
If this is our standard of proof can’t anyone just make up anything about china?
Surely if somebody is reporting this, they have found evidence that it’s true, thus, it should be verifiable, no?
What is a good source for this?
Gao Shanwen and and Fu Peng, chief economist at brokerage firm Northeast Securities, have stayed under the radar after challenging official rhetoric painting a rosy picture for China’s growth outlook. Even the South China Morning Post reported about that, citing Northeast Securities that Fu would not be making “any public appearances for the time being,” as public “misrepresentation” has caused “considerable distress”. Now it seems that also Gao will ‘not appear in the public.’ But I wouldn’t expect an official confirmation by the Chinese government for that.
How can I verify this?
edit: to be clear i’m not denying it, I just see no way to do this at all, it’s probably true.
-1000 social credit
A planned lecture at China’s Nankai University was abruptly cancelled in January, reportedly due to “scheduling conflicts.”
Is he scheduled to visit a “reeducation” camp?
